Saturday, November 27, 2010
Saturday's forecast
Dry and warming conditions will continue to be the trend as we go through the weekend as upper-level ridging continues to build into the region. Sunday night a long-wave trough will move out of the west towards the Great Plains. This upper level wave will be in conjunction with the 500 mb wave and vorticity. This will lead to prime conditions for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado on Sunday. On Sunday, an area of low pressure is forecast to rapidly develop/deepen over eastern CO and move northeastward during the evening towards the Dakotas. As the low approaches the SNOwD UNDER domain, the low is expected to weaken some, but none-the-less provide nearly 24 hours of light-moderate snowfall late Sunday night into late Monday night. The storm is still too far away and the models are not in agreement therefore, start time nor snowfall accumulation amounts cannot be exactly determined at this point.
Today: Expect temperatures to be in the mid 20s with breezy southerly winds. Cirrus clouds will start to approach the domain during the afternoon hours, but will likely be partially to fully obscured by low-level stratus.
- Lead Forecaster
Today: Expect temperatures to be in the mid 20s with breezy southerly winds. Cirrus clouds will start to approach the domain during the afternoon hours, but will likely be partially to fully obscured by low-level stratus.
- Lead Forecaster
Friday, November 26, 2010
More potential deployment opportunities this week
Monday begins the last, and final week of SNOwD UNDER. To date, we have three deployments with the DOW and several aircraft flights. Not bad for the first two weeks! The GFS is hinting at a possible deployment opportunity late Sunday or early Monday. At least two more snow events are possible after the next one and before the DOW leaves December 6th. Confidence is low in the latter two events at this point, but the situation bears watching.
Stay tuned for more updates through the weekend and make sure to check out our Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/snowdunder. You can also subscribe to our Atom RSS feed below.
- DOW Media Team
Stay tuned for more updates through the weekend and make sure to check out our Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/snowdunder. You can also subscribe to our Atom RSS feed below.
- DOW Media Team
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Deployment #3 underway!
The UND and DOW radars have been operating for the past several hours scanning the snowband in the Red River Valley. During the passage of the band, the DOW reported low visibilities with moderate to heavy snowfall.
- The DOW team
- The DOW team
DOW radar animations from deployments #1 and #2
DOW radar animations from the first two deployments have been posted to youtube. Make sure to check them out in HD so you can see all of the fine-scale features!
Deployment #1 (Nov. 20-21, 2010)
Deployment #2 (Nov. 22-23, 2010)
Deployment #1 (Nov. 20-21, 2010)
Deployment #2 (Nov. 22-23, 2010)
Wedneday - Thursday Forecast
***Another prolonged snow event to impact the the region today and Thursday***
Cyclogenesis will continue to slowly occur over the high plains of Nebraska. The sub-tropical jet, oriented from Arizona to Maine, will force the weak area of low pressure into the Northern Plains during the day today. But, the low pressure system will be lacking the divergence needed in the jet, either from being located in the right entrance or left exit regions, to allow for deep cyclogenesis. The 500 mb trough will be in phase with the surface low, trailing approx 9 hours behind. As the 500 mb trough tracks eastward during the day, the gradient aloft will tighten, and thus increasing the amount of vorticity present from speed and curvature. This, combined with warm-air advection at 850 mb, will provide for wide spread snow across the domain. But, with a lack of an abundant moisture source, it appears the heaviest snow rates will stay to the east and a prolonged period of light snow will persist through the day in the forecast domain. Activity will begin to taper off Thursday morning as the low pressure center begins to move into SW Ontario, but wrap around snow showers will likely be seen through out the day on Thursday. When everything is said and done, new snow accumulations of 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts, can be expected through out the SNOwD UNDER domain. The biggest difference between this storm and first storm, will be the winds at the surface. Winds on Wednesday are expected to be around 10-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts. As the low pulls away, sustained winds are forecast to be 20-30 kts, with higher gusts. Thus, visibilities will be reduce to 1/4 or less at times creating periodic Blizzard conditions.
***There will not be a forecast briefing Thursday morning.***
Cyclogenesis will continue to slowly occur over the high plains of Nebraska. The sub-tropical jet, oriented from Arizona to Maine, will force the weak area of low pressure into the Northern Plains during the day today. But, the low pressure system will be lacking the divergence needed in the jet, either from being located in the right entrance or left exit regions, to allow for deep cyclogenesis. The 500 mb trough will be in phase with the surface low, trailing approx 9 hours behind. As the 500 mb trough tracks eastward during the day, the gradient aloft will tighten, and thus increasing the amount of vorticity present from speed and curvature. This, combined with warm-air advection at 850 mb, will provide for wide spread snow across the domain. But, with a lack of an abundant moisture source, it appears the heaviest snow rates will stay to the east and a prolonged period of light snow will persist through the day in the forecast domain. Activity will begin to taper off Thursday morning as the low pressure center begins to move into SW Ontario, but wrap around snow showers will likely be seen through out the day on Thursday. When everything is said and done, new snow accumulations of 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts, can be expected through out the SNOwD UNDER domain. The biggest difference between this storm and first storm, will be the winds at the surface. Winds on Wednesday are expected to be around 10-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts. As the low pulls away, sustained winds are forecast to be 20-30 kts, with higher gusts. Thus, visibilities will be reduce to 1/4 or less at times creating periodic Blizzard conditions.
***There will not be a forecast briefing Thursday morning.***
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Forecast Briefings 11/23/2010
To help prepare for tomorrow's snow event, there will be an additional forecast briefing today at 4 pm in RWIC.
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