No operations today, 12/1/2010

Earlier in the week we mentioned the possibility of 3 more deployments before the end of the field project.  That forecast was based the expected snow and wind event on Monday into early Tuesday (Deployment #4), the threat of light snow today and tonight, and the threat of snow this weekend.  Late this morning, however, we're seeing sunny skies across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with the light snow located farther west, in central and western North Dakota.  This band of snow is expected to slide southeast into northern South Dakota and eventually into southwestern Minnesota and western Iowa.  So, for today, there are no operations planned since the snow is too far west (and eventually south).

As of this morning, the forecast for Thursday is dry, as a weak ridge of high pressure continues to keep conditions relatively pleasant.  The best option for our 5th, and likely last, deployment arrives on Friday as an upper-level disturbance moves through the Dakotas and into Minnesota during the day.  Forecast models have been pretty persistent for the last week to ten days suggesting the threat of snow during the Friday-Sunday period, and currently it appears that the snow event will occur on Friday.

-Media Team

Deployment #4 is in the books!

Radar operations with the DOW and UND's NorthPol radar were suspended this morning as the snow event transitioned to a blowing snow event.  The SNOwD UNDER team is looking forward to a few down days to rest after the high operational tempo we've kept over the last ten days.  Operations appear possible this Saturday as another storm begins to move into the area.  Stay tuned for more details as the weekend approaches.


As always, you can view our Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/snowdunder and read the daily forecast briefings at http://stwrc.und.edu/snowdundr/fcsts/dailyfcst.html.


- Media Team.

Deployment #4 underway

The DOW is in the field once again and has been collecting data since around noon today.  Snow accumulation in the range of 1-5" is expected within the study domain accompanied by considerable blowing.

-Media Team

Sunday (11/28) Briefing Summary

Freezing drizzle expected tonight, however, there will be no operations.  Snow is likely Mon. afternoon into Tue. morning.  Operations are likely. Details will be worked out at the 8am briefing tomorrow!

Sunday's forecast briefing

Sunday's forecast briefing will be held at 11 am in RWIC. See you there!

Saturday's forecast

Dry and warming conditions will continue to be the trend as we go through the weekend as upper-level ridging continues to build into the region. Sunday night a long-wave trough will move out of the west towards the Great Plains. This upper level wave will be in conjunction with the 500 mb wave and vorticity. This will lead to prime conditions for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado on Sunday. On Sunday, an area of low pressure is forecast to rapidly develop/deepen over eastern CO and move northeastward during the evening towards the Dakotas. As the low approaches the SNOwD UNDER domain, the low is expected to weaken some, but none-the-less provide nearly 24 hours of light-moderate snowfall late Sunday night into late Monday night. The storm is still too far away and the models are not in agreement therefore, start time nor snowfall accumulation amounts cannot be exactly determined at this point.

Today: Expect temperatures to be in the mid 20s with breezy southerly winds. Cirrus clouds will start to approach the domain during the afternoon hours, but will likely be partially to fully obscured by low-level stratus.


- Lead Forecaster

More potential deployment opportunities this week

Monday begins the last, and final week of SNOwD UNDER.  To date, we have three deployments with the DOW and several aircraft flights.  Not bad for the first two weeks!  The GFS is hinting at a possible deployment opportunity late Sunday or early Monday.  At least two more snow events are possible after the next one and before the DOW leaves December 6th. Confidence is low in the latter two events at this point, but the situation bears watching.

Stay tuned for more updates through the weekend and make sure to check out our Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/snowdunder.  You can also subscribe to our Atom RSS feed below.


- DOW Media Team

Deployment #3 underway!

The UND and DOW radars have been operating for the past several hours scanning the snowband in the Red River Valley.  During the passage of the band, the DOW reported low visibilities with moderate to heavy snowfall. 

- The DOW team

DOW radar animations from deployments #1 and #2

DOW radar animations from the first two deployments have been posted to youtube.  Make sure to check them out in HD so you can see all of the fine-scale features!

Deployment #1 (Nov. 20-21, 2010)

Deployment #2 (Nov. 22-23, 2010)

Wedneday - Thursday Forecast

***Another prolonged snow event to impact the the region today and Thursday***

Cyclogenesis will continue to slowly occur over the high plains of Nebraska. The sub-tropical jet, oriented from Arizona to Maine, will force the weak area of low pressure into the Northern Plains during the day today. But, the low pressure system will be lacking the divergence needed in the jet, either from being located in the right entrance or left exit regions, to allow for deep cyclogenesis. The 500 mb trough will be in phase with the surface low, trailing approx 9 hours behind. As the 500 mb trough tracks eastward during the day, the gradient aloft will tighten, and thus increasing the amount of vorticity present from speed and curvature. This, combined with warm-air advection at 850 mb, will provide for wide spread snow across the domain. But, with a lack of an abundant moisture source, it appears the heaviest snow rates will stay to the east and a prolonged period of light snow will persist through the day in the forecast domain. Activity will begin to taper off Thursday morning as the low pressure center begins to move into SW Ontario, but wrap around snow showers will likely be seen through out the day on Thursday. When everything is said and done, new snow accumulations of 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts, can be expected through out the SNOwD UNDER domain. The biggest difference between this storm and first storm, will be the winds at the surface. Winds on Wednesday are expected to be around 10-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts. As the low pulls away, sustained winds are forecast to be 20-30 kts, with higher gusts. Thus, visibilities will be reduce to 1/4 or less at times creating periodic Blizzard conditions.



***There will not be a forecast briefing Thursday morning.***

Forecast Briefings 11/23/2010

To help prepare for tomorrow's snow event, there will be an additional forecast briefing today at 4 pm in RWIC. 

Deployment #2 in the books, preparations for #3 underway

Deployment #2 wrapped up yesterday evening after a day of successful data collection.  More photos from Deployments #1 and 2 are available on our Facebook page.

Planning is underway for our next deployment for Wednesday and possibly into Thursday.  You can read the project forecast discussion at http://stwrc.und.edu/snowdundr/fcsts/dailyfcst.html.

-DOW team.

Deployment #2, early afternoon update

Deployment #2 continues.  Visibilities at the DOW site are still in the 1/4 to 1/2 mile range.  Winds seem to have increased, too, now 15 to 20 mph.  Data collection is proceeding well with the DOW and UND's NorthPol radar collecting volume scans and RHIs.  All three radars, including NWS's Mayville radar, are completing scans every ten minutes.

This afternoon's deployment is expected to continue for several more hours and a new crew is expected at the radar site later this afternoon.  Having numerous teams of students operate the radar is an important education goal for the project and rotating the crews helps achieve this objective.

The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday still points toward another possible deployment for a significant storm moving in mid-week.  Stay tuned for more details, and be sure to check our daily forecasts at http://stwrc.und.edu/snowdundr/fcsts/dailyfcst.html.

-DOW team.

Deployment #2 continues

Snow has increased significantly at the DOW site with visibilities 1/4 to 1/2 mile.  Winds have diminished and aggregate snow seems to be the dominant type.  NorthPol operations have begun after a hardware replacement this morning, with a PPI volume scanning strategy planned for the now.

Keith, one of our DOW crew members this morning, took a photo of the DOW in the snow for your viewing pleasure.  Thanks, Keith!

-DOW team.

Deployment #2 is underway

As mentioned yesterday and last evening, snow is expected across the domain today.  DOW operations began around 8:30 am this morning.  Light snow and fog are observed at the deployment location as of 8:40 am.  A heavy snow band is currently impacting the Fargo area and is moving generally northeasterly and drifting slowly north.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the day.

-DOW team

Monday (Deployment #2)

Latest 00Z models have sped up the system for Monday.  Snow should impact the operational domain from approximately 15-3Z   (8am-9pm). As a result, operations are expected to commence around the time of the briefing. The briefing will occur as scheduled. 

Deployment #1 a success, No operations today.

As mentioned yesterday, Deployment #1 is in the books. The DOW deployed to one of our southern sites, in an optimum triple-Doppler location just as snowfall began. Operations continued through the night and into this morning before closing down as the first round of snow wound down. Several small convective cells, embedded within the main snow band were observed and thoroughly sampled.

This event was close to being a perfect deployment. Hardware issues with NorthPol prevented optimum data collection. An intermittent short in the servo amp limited NorthPol operations to normal volume scans but without RHIs. Luckily a replacement part is scheduled to arrive on Monday. The snow event was also rather weak, and although many bands were observed, the NWS radar operated in clear-air mode. Despite allowing the WSR-88D radar to see most of the snow  shorter wavelength radars can view, clear-air mode has fewer vertical tilts.  The aircraft also deployed and was able to collect observations near and over the Buxton field site.

Operations are not expected for the remainder of the day. A relatively potent upper low is expected to move out of the Rockies toward the Northern Plains on Monday. The current forecast track brings the heaviest snowfall across southeast North Dakota through northern Minnesota. The last few weather forecast model runs have suggested an increasing chance of snow over the study domain. Operations are possible again on Monday, mainly afternoon, as this system moves through.

Attention then turns toward the middle of the week (around the Thanksgiving holiday). Another storm system is expected to move into the area Wednesday bringing the threat of snow and wind into the study domain once again.

All in all, a fairly active week is expected for the second week of the study.

Sunday Forecast

Quiet for the rest of the day, more light snow tomorrow, possibly the biggest event of the season thus far on Wednesday into Thursday. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week!

More information can be found at: http://stwrc.und.edu/snowdundr/fcsts/dailyfcst.html

Deployment #1 wrapping up.

Snow is ending earlier than originally forecast.  The last DOW shift will not be needed and is canceled.

Snow bands as seen from the DOW

The DOW has already been deployed for approximately 5 hours and has collected some interesting data.  Seen below are the reflectivty and velocity fields for a snowband with a wave-like structure.